Is Sequel Fatigue Killing Hollywood?

The summer box office season is winding down, and if you’re following the news, the overwhelming champion of 2017 appears to be the movie nobody wants to see - Sequel Fatigue. That’s right, this special feature, which is part comedy, part Shakespearean tragedy, part Texas Chainsaw Massacre, continues to be the number one trending story of the summer. Before we all rush out and miss this film, let’s take a closer look at Hollywood’s ultimate film noir.

The first act of Sequel Fatigue is a bit of a yawner. In January of this year, the fifth installment of the Underworld series, Blood Wars, took a 50% nosedive from the relatively successful Underworld Awakening, which was released way back in 2012. Of course, the production budget for Blood Wars was significantly lower than Awakening, and the series was never considered a major franchise, so the dip in receipts was largely ignored. Besides, XXX: The Return of Xander Cage had a nice January opening, and that was followed closely by John Wick: Chapter Two, which did a lot better than many people expected. Anyway, A Dog’s Purpose was taking all the negative press, and Monster Trucks was really, really, bad, so there was nothing much to see – a couple of minor bumps on the road to a record-breaking year.

While the opening of Sequel Fatigue was relatively benign, a few things happened in February that should have foreshadowed the action to come. Fifty Shades Darker opened with considerable heat and a hefty marketing budget, but still only whipped up 50% of its predecessor, Fifty Shades of Grey. Darker dropped a precipitous 57% in week two and ended its North American run with a disappointing $114 million. That same weekend, The Lego Batman Movie, which was considered a sure thing by most, opened with an okay $53 million, surprisingly short of the $69 million that The Lego Movie enjoyed in 2014. By the end of week four, The Lego Batman Movie, which was well received by critics and audiences alike, sat at just over $150 million, compared to the $214 million pieced together by The Lego Movie in its first four weeks. This was head-scratcher. By all accounts Lego Batman should have equaled or surpassed the original – well received 2nd installments almost always build on the first. And this movie had Batman! Something was definitely lurking in the shadows. Was this simply a case of fatigue, or was the plot a little more complex?

If we could flashback, we would see that The Lego Batman Movie was doomed almost from the start. The film never had a chance to hold screens into March, and the competition was brutal. Forgetting The Great Wall (and who hasn’t), the movies following quickly on Lego’s heels included Get Out, Logan, Kong: Skull Island, and the biggest monster of them all, Beauty and the Beast. March concluded with two family-friendly releases in Power Rangers and The Boss Baby, and by the end of March, Lego, which had launched on over 4,000 screens, was down to about 800 and its run was basically over. Beauty and the Beast, on the other hand, was still playing on close to 3,000 screens after two months, and had amassed nearly $500 million by the time Guardians of the Galaxy 2 warped into theaters on May 5th. Given this, the first months of the year were marked, not so much by fatigue, but by indigestion. There were just too many good, big-budget movies for the public to digest. Power Rangers and The Boss Baby were so-so, but Get Out, Logan, Beauty and the Beast, and Kong were all certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Gluttony, not audience indifference, was the villain in the first half of Sequel Fatigue, and it was killing the 2017 box office.

The second act of Sequel Fatigue starts off with a bang, but like a Wimpy Kid, quickly dissolves into a blubbering mess as a series of films wet themselves in half-filled auditoriums. By any measure, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was a huge hit. The nearly $389 million in domestic box office receipts was a solid 17% over the first Guardians, and the worldwide gross of $862 million was about 12% higher than Vol. 1. Now that’s an IP that deserves a $200 million budget. Unfortunately, May also brought us the fifth installment of Pirates of the Caribbean, the seventh iteration of Alien, a would-be King Arthur franchise starter, two horrible comedies that were raunchy for all the wrong reasons, and, inexplicably, the aforementioned fourth attempt at a Wimpy Kid adaptation. By the end of May, the Sequel Fatigue narrative was beginning to take hold, and like the girl who goes into a dark basement even when everyone knows there’s an axe murderer hiding behind the washer, Hollywood crept into June with eyes wide shut, hoping beyond hope that the sequel bogeyman had left the building.

June brought a ray of hope in the form of an amazon warrior. Wonder Woman opened with a better than average $103 million, and proceeded to smash through the summer competition, displaying superhero-like legs on its way to over $400 million in North America. While this was not a sequel, the DC origin story was an extension of the Justice League franchise, and WW’s success proved the assertion that audiences will support a really good movie. Of course, June also gave us Cars 3 and Transformers 6, but the month ended with another decent (and successful) Despicable Me, and a truly original Baby Driver. On the July horizon, Spider-Man: Homecoming promised plenty of fireworks. The box office prognosis was starting to look rosy.

Spider-Man: Homecoming opened with a solid $117 million. As this was the sixth Spidey movie, the result was met with relief, especially at Sony. The good feelings were short-lived, however, as the second weekend saw a sharp 62% decline. Moreover, the critically acclaimed War for the Planet of the Apes debuted with just $56 million on over 4,000 screens, the lowest per screen average in the Apes trilogy. Original offerings such as Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Atomic Blonde, and The Emoji Movie did little to inspire audiences, and while the critically acclaimed Dunkirk and the fan favorite Girls Trip did their best to buoy results, July finished down 8% from the previous year. The climatic conclusion of Sequel Fatigue was going to be a bloodbath.

Like the Grim Reaper, August continued to claim its weekend victims, putting year-to-year declines deeper into a hole. The biggest offender, ironically, was Sony’s The Dark Tower, which managed a deadly $19 million opening, and is likely to fall well short of its reported $60 million budget. Annabelle: Creation is currently scaring up a bit of business, but unless The Hitman’s Bodyguard goes crazy, the summer will end on a downward spiral, and Sequel Fatigue will be crowned box office champion.

PageBreaks Take: The notion of sequel fatigue is a false and lazy narrative. It implies a problem, not with the product, but with the consumer. Sure, audiences are tired of seeing Jack Sparrow, Optimus Prime, and maybe even Dominic Toretto, but they embraced Belle, Star-Lord, and Princess Diana, and even found a place in their hearts for Gru. None of these characters were original. The truth is; well-crafted movies made within a reasonable budget will enjoy a high likelihood of success. Bloated, money-grabbing IP extensions may spark some initial interest, but will ultimately fail under the weight of rotten reviews and poor word-of-mouth. The summer box office turned out to be a wasteland of mediocrity, but with Blade Runner 2049, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi still to come, 2017 may yet prove to be a record-breaking year. If that happens, the credits will mercifully role on this year’s version of Sequel Fatigue.

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